Historically, the incumbent party loses seats in the midterm elections after a wave election (Obama kicked ass in the electoral college, thus meeting the conditions). The Republicans--
I don't mention the tea-hadists (or teabaggers, or 9-12ers, or whatever the clowns feel like calling themselves this week) here because they are functionally identical to the Republicans and a sponsored subsidiary of the same Republicans--
The Republicans already had history on their side to gain seats in Congress and thus more power to either obstruct essentially all non-foreigner killing government function, or if they gain control of the House, launch endless, wasteful, costly "investigations" in hopes of "getting" something on the Democrats.
In addition to history, the Republicans also have the pain and anxiety of a economic downswing (that was largely caused by their fiscal (and militaristic) policies) to boost enthusiasm for their lagging "brand".
You also have the buyer's remorse effect of electing someone who hasn't given you your pony RIGHT NOW! And (unfortunately) mix in the not insignificant portion of... let's just say melanin motivated voters, and you have a recipe for a hard fought election season.
But now we've touched one of the pillars of modern movement conservatism. The gay portion of the "god, guns, gays" trifecta that they've been running on for the last few generations. All that other crap was amenable to some leverage of reason (probably not much). But this is one of those supercharged emotional issues that will bring out the low information, zombie conservative voters in droves. A gay case going up to a federal circuit court (and eventually to the Supreme Court of the U.S)?! A gay case from Sissy punk California home of the San Francisco gay?! You might as well put Crystal Meth, two free all you can eat Hooters passes and a lap dance coupon in the voting booth. They'll be there (and most likely be square).
You think I had it hard the first go round, but I had the tail end of what was the shittiest presidency in the modern era, the inherent interest in a Presidential election, and the top two candidates for my party being first of a kind. Everyone had something to be excited about, everybody had something to vote FOR.
You cats are in it for real. It's a midterm election, so no presidential glamor, the aforementioned systemic hurdles, but on top of that you have to essentially fight conservative white jesus AND not alienate otherwise liberally minded voters who might have to remnants of the anti-gay rhetoric embedded deep in their personality. When I was on the campaign trail, it was still considered gauche to be blatantly racist. It's NEVER been gauche to be blatantly homophobic.
You have your work cut out for you. I'll be there to help, but got damn y'all better put on y'all grown folks drawers 'cause it's going to be fucking ridiculous out there this fall.